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恶作剧之吻

一 |

GOP front-runner and four times-indicted Donald Trump will not be physically present at Wednesday evening's first 2024 presidential primary debate. But he'll be there anyway as the troubled candidate remains the dominant figure – and issue – of the nominating contest.

Typically, early debates are a chance for poll-laggers to make an impression, either by delivering a well-placed zinger at a top-tier candidate or shining with a smart response to a question. The front-runners tend to have targets on their backs, which could result in a weakened position or a stronger one, if they handle attacks from primary rivals well.

But in the case of the debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday, the participants are in an awkward, perhaps no-win situation: The front-runner won't even be there, and the rest of the field can't attack him without alienating the very voters they'd need to sew up the nomination, should the legally imperiled Trump be forced to suspend his campaign.

Trump is "going to be the huge, spray-tanned elephant in the room. He's going to be what everybody is thinking about, even though he's not there," says Dave Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron.

That means the eight candidates who have qualified for the debate – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – have few choices, and none is terribly appealing.

They can attack Trump, defend him or try to ignore him – which debate moderators are not likely to let pass, Cohen says. None of those approaches helps a candidate emerge as a better choice than Trump without angering Trump's rank-and-file loyalists.

"They're in a difficult spot, strategically," says Stephen Smith, professor at the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. But "it's one they've earned," he adds.

Only a few have been willing to criticize Trump directly, and it's not appeared to have endeared them to GOP primary voters.

Christie – who worked on Trump's transition team before turning on him – has been the most aggressive in his attacks on Trump, saying the former president lacks the "character" to serve in the Oval Office and needling Trump for skipping the debate, which Christie last week called "completely disrespectful" to GOP voters.

The tactic – essentially making himself the marquee foil of Trump – is based on the gamble that if Trump ends up leaving the race, Christie will emerge as the most prominent truth-teller and default new front-runner.

It's not going so well, so far: National polls have Christie in the low single digits. A recent Des Moines Register/NBC poll in Iowa puts Christie in sixth place with 5% support among GOP caucus-goers.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson – who arguably on paper has the most complete and traditional resume for a Republican presidential contender – is also polling in the low single digits, his criticism of Trump not moving the needle at all.

Former Vice President Mike Pence has stepped up his criticism of Trump's behavior – saying the former president asked him to put him above the Constitution by asking him to refuse to certify the 2020 election results – but hasn't made it as personal.

Pence recently said he was not aware of any "broad-based effort" to declassify records before Trump left office, undercutting the former president's claim that the classified documents he is accused of taking and improperly keeping at his Mar-a-Lago resort were, in fact, declassified. But Pence has also been reluctant to say Trump should be treated like any other politician who has been convicted of a felony – meaning, ousted from office.

"I think that needs to be left to the American people. Look, let’s let the former president have his day in court. Let’s maintain a presumption of innocence in this matter," Pence told ABC on Sunday.

Former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley – the only woman who will be onstage Wednesday night – has cautioned that Trump's legal troubles could cost Republicans the general election. She hasn't directly criticized the former president but didn't shy away earlier this month by reminding people of how much worse Trump's situation is getting.

"Like most Americans, I’m tired of commenting on every Trump drama. I’ve lost track of whether this indictment is the third or fourth or the fifth," Haley said during an appearance on “Good Morning New Hampshire” radio show with Jack Heath – before the fourth indictment out of Georgia’s Fulton County.

Others have responded to questions about Trump with attacks on the criminal justice system and its prosecutors themselves.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is running a distant second to Trump in most polls, decried the "weaponization of government" after Trump's third indictment – though he conceded he had not actually read the document. DeSantis also acknowledged recently that the 2020 election was not stolen, telling NBC "of course he lost" when asked about Trump's discredited claims of a fraudulent 2020 contest – a comment not likely to endear him to Trump's most devoted supporters.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina called the recent indictment of Trump "un-American and unacceptable. We need a better system than that."

Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has edged upward in a couple of state polls, has walked a similar line.

"These are politicized persecutions through prosecution,” he said at a town hall meeting last week. “It would be a lot easier for me if Donald Trump were not in this primary, but that is not how I want to win this election," he added.

And North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is just deflecting the matter entirely.

"I do trust the voters. ... They want presidential elections to be about the future, a vision for the future," Burgum told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday after being asked about Trump's troubles.

In reality, it is the candidates not named Trump who will have the most to prove or explain Wednesday night, analysts say. DeSantis, whose campaign has been flailing, might need to explain why he suggested some Republicans backing Trump are "listless vessels" – a cringe-worthy similar remark to 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton reference to the "basket of deplorables" in Trump's base.

As the front-runner among the also-rans, DeSantis will likely take the heaviest rhetorical artillery from the GOP field at the debate. Most of the rest will be struggling to get out of single digits – with the possible exception of Burgum, who is still trying to get the American public to recognize his name.

Trump, meanwhile, said he plans to counter-program with the airing of a taped one-on-one interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Thursday – a day when the political news would typically be dominated by post-debate analysis – Trump will be the star player in an unprecedented legal and political drama, turning himself in for processing at a Fulton County jail.

"He's cutting right into the shadow of the debate" with that timing, Smith says. As he undoubtedly will during the debate itself.

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二 |     北京時間週四上晝，WNBA常規賽好戲連場，其中飛翼主場迎戰節奏在較早時段開波。兩隊近期都陷入連敗泥潭，不過對比各自當前處境可看出飛翼的實力明顯在節奏之上，因此看好飛翼贏球止頹。

    　　今季強勢崛起的飛翼想以有利位置開啟季後賽征程，無奈最近一波三連敗讓她們在競爭形勢裡暫時落於被動，當務之急是贏球提振士氣。此番一大利好，飛翼今季主場對陣當下前八名之外的隊伍6戰全勝，當中半數場次淨勝至少15分。人手方面，內線核心謝絲嘉舒柏特上仗受傷，今仗缺陣；好在球隊今季頭兩次面對節奏時的整體發揮不俗，尤其是柏治布克絲均場斬獲28分，對方難以對其有效限制，期待她今仗再有精彩個人演出。

三 |

　　節奏在賽季早段有過不少驚喜，頭12場打出7勝5負；然而近20場慘遭3勝17負，並深陷九連敗，儼然撞上「新軍墻」無法自拔。

四 | 必須指出，節奏近10場客場輸9場，其中6場淨負分差為雙位數。與此同時，節奏今季客場僅1場失分低於90分，也是其防守水平為全聯盟最差的一大體現。

五 | 何況節奏今季已兩負飛翼，均場失分多達98.5分，兩場都淨負13分，彼此間實力存在明顯差距，前者此行可謂毫無勝算。陣容方面，比特妮史姬絲仍舊傷缺。

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Published on:12:29:04

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